Weekly market Recap – January 16th

El siguiente material ha sido elaborado por el respectivo participante únicamente con fines informativos y no proporciona, ni tiene la intención de proporcionar, asesoramiento fiscal, legal, contable o de inversión. Esta información es de carácter general y no aborda las circunstancias de ningún individuo o entidad en particular. Debe consultar a un asesor calificado sobre su situación para responder preguntas específicas.

Wage Growth Verses Inflation is Never a Fair Race

  • The Consumer has felt the squeeze to keep up with inflation and is slowly losing the race.

  • If unemployment falls too quickly (which is often the case with fast Fed tightening), the recession most economists are predicting can be much longer-lasting.

Consumer Price Index

Consumer prices remain high despite The Fed’s attempt to curb inflation.

GS US Wage Growth Basket

At the same time, Wages are stagnant to down in some sectors. The Fed is hoping wages will keep up, and employment will soften “just enough (4.3%)” to curb inflation. – A very small landing zone.

  • In the very short-term, the market has formed a bullish “cup and handle” pattern, which implies in the near-term, we could expect stocks to rise.
  • In the larger timeframe (right), however, we remain in a “bearish channel” and must stay above the 200-day average to break the long-term trend we are in.

Never Count the VIX out :

  • The VIX again has become complacent, but each time it does that markets have sold off.

  • If January is any gauge, history tells us to expect more volatility ahead.

  • As the S&P rises 3% in the first days of the year, history suggests the rally may not continue.

  • On the four occasions that markets have posted double-digit declines in a year since the turn of the century, stocks have fallen in the first month of the following year three different times.

  • With earnings season upon us, we may be set for some serious volatility if history is a guide.

Can Apple and Amazon Bottom as We Enter Earnings Season?

  • The combined losses on Apple and Amazon equal the entire market value of Switzerland.

  • With the earnings on February 2, 2023 and expectations already low, any surprise to the upside can boost these stocks (and potentially) the broader market out of their losing streak.

  • In summary, a “low expectations” earnings season, combined with good surprises will give confidence to new investors and institutions alike to enter equity markets.

Unexpected Crop Fails in the US Could Add to Risings Costs

  • A major cut to harvested corn acres means grain suppliers are a lot tighter than realized.

  • This can directly affect the cost of livestock and poultry as well.

  • Due to persistent drought conditions in Texas and Nebraska, other future harvests such as wheat (currently dormant for winter) can also experience crop failure.

London Technology Venture Capital Closing the Gap on the US

  • London technology companies attracted twice as much investment as those in any other European city last year as the UK’s capital raising closed the gap with US hubs.

  • With Global tech investment down 33% since the previous year, the US must be very careful how they tax corporations and allow capital to flow out of the country.

A Good Case for Adding Europe to a Diversified Portfolio

  • After 14 years of US outperformance, the trend based on the above ratio has been firmly broken.
  • The 100-week moving average, that has held for over a decade, has finally broken down.
  • US dominance is ending due to higher rates hitting tech shares, lower buybacks, and the peaking dollar.
  • Passenger EV sales are set to break another record in 2023, at 13.6 M globally.

  • Although the pace has slowed for economic reasons, China will be playing an

    increasingly larger role.

  • The US is also set to break out, with new manufacturing capacity as well as new Federal tax credits.