Weekly market Recap – July 24th

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Despite dwindling money supply, a recession has not been seen yet, why?

  • The entire burden of the monetary collapse and rate hikes is falling on the shoulders of families and small businesses, while large corporations and governments are virtually unaffected.

  • When the state amounts for 40% of GDP and continues to spend, GDP will not show a recession immediately.  Bloating government spending is masking private sector disposable income declines.

Things are becoming riper for corrective action:

  • The S&P 500 Index has not fallen more than 1% in 38 straight sessions, the last time this happened was right before the market crashed in late 2021.
  • Hype around AI has been powering demand for growth stocks, and the technology sector was initially the main engine of the rally.  Breadth has now significantly improved, with 168 stocks trading within 5% of their 52-week highs.

Massive week for earnings which could be pivotal around the Fed meeting:

  • Companies with a combined 27 trillion in market value are set to report this week.
  • So far, companies that have reported anything disappointing including future guidance, it has been an excuse to sell off.
  • Examples of this last week were both Tesla and Netflix, who both beat estimates but sold off on future guidance.

The week ahead, are things getting overpriced?

Despite what globalists want, oil will still dominate the landscape for another century:

  • These 5 countries can supply the world with cheap oil for decades to come, they are expanding capacity, which means they will wield even more power in the global oil market as well in the broader global arena.
  • These countries only need oil to average $24 a barrel to achieve breakeven, which is currently 70% below the brent crude price.
  • In total these 5 nations control 54% of the world’s oil reserves. 

Weak economic data continues out of the Eurozone:

  • Although the primary decline was caused by energy prices, absolute prices levels on both consumer and producer-oriented inflation have been reset significantly higher over the past couple of years.

Analysts are expecting little performance out of Europe into year-end:

  • European stocks have struggled for gains since the end of the first quarter, meandering within a range of less than 5%.
  • A few episodes of volatility have been sparked by mixed macro-economic data, positive commentary from companies, excitement around AI and responses to central bank messaging around interest rates.

Younger generations are continuing to struggle to be financially secure:

  • Rising rents as well as higher rates that are cost-prohibitive to buy homes is causing younger generations to struggle and feel financially secure.