The material in each presentation has been prepared by the respective participant for informational purposes only, and does not, nor does it intend to, provide tax, legal, accounting, or investment advice. This information is of a general nature and does not address the circumstances of any particular individual or entity. You should consult a qualified advisor on your situation to answer specific questions.
The market shrugged off hawkish “fedspeak” and put in a 3-day rally.
The stock market is now in “nowhere ville” between moving averages, no clear trend.
Next week’s price action should set the tone (new uptrend or “bear rally”
So, what are the big banks doing?
Large institutions (who hedge in the futures markets) remain firmly bearish.
Since they account for 80-90% of ALL trading volume, it’s important to watch.
Fuente: Finviz
The weekly chart remains bearish despite a positive three days and a good week. The down channel remains intact.
20-week average remains below 50-week average = bearish.
200 week has a weakening slope = bearish
An eventual test of the 200-week average looks possible, which translates to -11.33% from 9/9/22 close.
Source: Finviz
The daily chart shows a false July breakout with an early-stage uptrend destroyed.
The 20 and 200-day averages are in decline, but 50-day (in blue) slopes up = intermediate indecision.
The blue circles show “sticky” areas of support and resistance (supply and demand).
As those areas get repeatedly tested, buyers and sellers wear out, if buyer exhaustion occurs at 390, 365 is the next stop, which aligns with the weekly chart’s 200-week average being tested.
Mutual fund outflows have benefited ETF funds in both Equity and Bond funds.
The shaded areas depict the months when ETF flows exceeded mutual fund flows.
The entire year, that has been the case.
Source: Bloomberg, MBA, HEDGEYE
This chart illustrates how the housing market is the hardest to be negatively affected by a fast rise in interest rates.
5th monthly decline and the highest mortgage rates since 2008.
If consumers stop buying large items will this spill over to smaller consumer cyclicals?
Source: Forexfactory
CPI data on Tuesday is expected to decline modestly, if it disappoints, our modest rally last week will be in jeopardy
If PPI also fails to fall, it can seal the deal for continued aggressive rate hikes.
Source: Bloomberg
Brazil stayed ahead of inflation; the US remains yield curve inverted.
This is also reflected in their respective stock markets, with Brazil IBOVESPA Index +7.13% and the S&P 500 -14.66% respectively.
Brazil seems to be ready for a second move higher.
Being ahead of the inflation curve has institutional managers looking to add risk capital to the region.
The technicals on EWZ point to a break-out if it can close and hold 32.