Weekly Market Recap – June 20th

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Equity investors get ready for recession

Global equity investors may be excited to see green on their screens this week, but stock gains seem to be evidence of a defensive shift in positioning rather than a “risk-on” trade. Worldwide defensive stocks climbed to more than an 18-month high relative to the MSCI AC World Index, as fears of a global recession outweigh concern over sky-high inflation. The gauge has jumped more than 4% this week, double the rise in the global stocks benchmark — itself on track for its first weekly gain in four.

Source: Bloomberg

European Investors rush to safety

Traders rushing for the safety of government bonds sent the yield on two-year German bonds tumbling 25 basis points, the most since March 17, 2008. That’s the day after JPMorgan Chase & Co. announced it would buy Bear Stearns, one of the most high-profile victims of the global financial crisis — which eventually drove the world economy into a deep recession.

Source: Bloomberg

Misery in the first half of the year...

The S&P 500 is now poised for its worst first half since 1970, the time of Richard Nixon’s presidency. With just seven trading days left until the end of June, the index is down 21% since the beginning of the year amid expectations that a toxic mix of high inflation and a hawkish Federal Reserve will tip the US economy into a recession.

A 1970’s-style inflation shock could send the index crashing about 33% from current levels to 2,525 amid stagnation with higher inflation, according to Societe Generale SA strategist Manish Kabra.

Fuente: Bloomberg

Bitcoin tries to maintain support

Bitcoin’s recent volatile price swings show some evidence that the token is gravitating around round-number levels. In recent months, the largest cryptocurrency hovered around $40,000, then $30,000; now it’s suggesting signs of settling in around $20,000, its latest $10,000 change.

Fuente: Bloomberg

Finding support in European Stocks

After what is poised to be the worst first half since 2008 for European
equities, strategists are optimistic that at least some of the losses will be clawed back by the end of the year. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index will end December at 467 index points, implying 14% upside from Tuesday’s close, according to the average of 15 forecasts in Bloomberg’s monthly survey. That would still represent a 4.3% drop for the year after strategists cut targets by nine index points on average in the past month.

Fuente: Bloomberg